* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/12/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 76 76 73 74 79 82 85 76 63 50
V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 76 76 73 74 79 82 85 76 63 50
V (KT) LGEM 75 78 78 78 76 73 72 75 79 72 57 44 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 16 19 15 12 10 25 35 28 24 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 4 12 1 3 1
SHEAR DIR 347 25 356 340 355 343 329 236 203 179 148 172 216
SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.2 24.6 22.7 19.9 15.4 13.3 12.1
POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 115 115 113 109 106 95 84 75 72 70
ADJ. POT. INT. 95 95 96 97 98 99 98 96 88 79 72 69 68
200 MB T (C) -57.2 -56.9 -56.3 -56.4 -56.6 -56.0 -56.3 -55.7 -54.8 -53.6 -53.2 -52.3 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.6 3.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 49 50 52 54 47 51 60 65 62 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 24 26 24 25 29 35 47 47 42 33
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -9 -6 0 25 59 115 118 92 77 78 40
200 MB DIV -26 -3 -17 -17 -31 -2 45 58 37 41 82 54 40
700-850 TADV 1 2 4 0 5 14 -1 -32 -117 -108 -94 -14 42
LAND (KM) 2085 2078 2071 2012 1973 1827 1607 1390 926 544 367 15 147
LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.3 32.3 33.5 35.6 38.8 43.3 48.9 54.1 59.0
LONG(DEG W) 35.7 35.5 35.3 34.7 34.1 31.9 28.7 24.6 19.9 15.8 12.8 10.0 7.4
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 6 8 13 18 22 26 28 29 27 25
HEAT CONTENT 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. -2. -1. 3. 11. 25. 25. 17. 5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. 1. -2. -1. 4. 7. 10. 1. -12. -25.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.2 35.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 476.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 57.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 5.1% 3.2% 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 999.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 78 76 76 73 74 79 82 85 76 63 50
18HR AGO 75 74 75 73 73 70 71 76 79 82 73 60 47
12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 69 66 67 72 75 78 69 56 43
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 62 63 68 71 74 65 52 39
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT