* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/12/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 75 74 73 75 82 85 79 68 55 46
V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 75 74 73 75 82 85 79 68 55 46
V (KT) LGEM 75 76 76 75 74 73 75 81 78 65 49 40 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 16 17 13 12 8 19 34 43 25 16 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 0 -6 -5 1 16 7 2 3 1
SHEAR DIR 16 360 333 351 6 329 283 219 192 164 156 198 254
SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.0 21.9 18.3 14.0 12.8 11.2
POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 115 114 115 112 108 102 91 81 74 70 68
ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 97 97 99 100 97 92 84 77 71 68 66
200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 -56.2 -56.3 -56.0 -54.6 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 1.7 4.3 3.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 51 52 54 51 49 56 61 71 69 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 23 26 25 25 25 33 43 47 43 37 31
850 MB ENV VOR -1 -5 -3 3 18 37 97 120 126 93 73 73 105
200 MB DIV -1 -10 -20 -34 -29 16 54 56 45 91 94 36 32
700-850 TADV 2 3 1 3 8 0 0 -52 -43 -108 -34 7 17
LAND (KM) 2093 2069 2025 1971 1917 1745 1491 1195 826 576 120 163 257
LAT (DEG N) 30.4 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.6 33.0 34.6 36.9 40.5 45.7 52.4 57.3 60.8
LONG(DEG W) 35.7 35.3 34.8 34.0 33.3 30.6 26.6 22.6 18.8 15.3 12.0 8.8 5.5
STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 10 16 19 21 26 32 31 23 19
HEAT CONTENT 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. -0. -5. -6. -7. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 6. 18. 23. 18. 8. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 7. 10. 4. -7. -20. -29.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.4 35.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.05 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 486.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.46 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 3.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 999.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/12/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 76 75 75 74 73 75 82 85 79 68 55 46
18HR AGO 75 74 73 73 72 71 73 80 83 77 66 53 44
12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 69 71 78 81 75 64 51 42
6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 63 65 72 75 69 58 45 36
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT