* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 83 84 83 81 79 65 49 37 26 23 21
V (KT) LAND 85 83 83 84 83 81 79 65 49 37 26 23 21
V (KT) LGEM 85 83 82 82 82 78 65 47 36 32 34 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 7 13 22 26 37 48 35 21 17 35 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -3 -3 2 7 5 0 2 -4 1 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 326 283 218 210 216 193 176 172 210 269 277 N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.3 21.8 18.1 14.4 13.1 12.4 11.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 109 108 105 92 80 73 70 69 68 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 98 98 96 85 75 69 68 67 66 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -55.8 -55.9 -55.0 -54.2 -53.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.0 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 55 55 52 48 44 46 43 45 50 58 63 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 30 31 39 47 43 34 25 19 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 30 48 74 104 106 100 52 29 73 26 119 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 28 41 53 59 46 24 68 81 48 29 43 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 6 1 -11 -31 -17 -66 -129 -75 9 31 31 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1805 1695 1595 1456 1271 791 555 178 74 52 467 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.4 34.2 35.3 36.4 40.4 45.9 50.9 55.2 58.9 62.0 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 31.5 29.8 28.1 25.7 23.3 18.4 14.8 12.1 9.4 5.5 0.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 19 22 25 29 28 25 22 21 20 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -26. -34. -41. -47. -51. -52. -54.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -15. -16. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 14. 25. 21. 9. -3. -12. -13. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -20. -36. -48. -59. -62. -64.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 32.6 31.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.57 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 457.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.49 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 83 84 83 81 79 65 49 37 26 23 21
18HR AGO 85 84 84 85 84 82 80 66 50 38 27 24 22
12HR AGO 85 82 81 82 81 79 77 63 47 35 24 21 19
6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 72 70 56 40 28 17 DIS DIS
NOW 85 76 70 67 66 64 62 48 32 20 DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 63 61 47 31 19 DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 85 83 83 74 68 64 62 48 32 20 DIS DIS DIS