* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 98 92 89 82 69 50 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 100 101 98 92 89 82 69 47 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 100 101 98 93 86 71 52 38 32 28 27 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 15 23 30 32 45 39 32 31 35 35 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 6 7 2 0 -3 5 8 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 235 214 213 203 201 184 181 202 222 242 264 N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.1 24.8 24.2 23.0 21.8 18.3 14.4 13.1 12.3 11.0 11.0 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 104 97 92 80 73 70 69 66 66 N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 95 90 85 76 70 67 66 64 63 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.7 -55.9 -55.4 -55.1 -54.2 -53.7 -52.7 -53.3 -54.0 -53.5 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 47 41 46 47 45 49 46 43 40 46 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 32 33 37 47 45 35 27 13 3 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 75 111 110 119 107 53 28 29 -25 -10 -65 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 43 64 58 35 26 69 83 46 21 30 -36 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -15 -41 -32 -70 -62 -106 -73 8 -9 -20 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1564 1428 1233 977 756 497 112 33 56 414 211 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.4 36.5 38.4 40.3 45.6 50.9 55.4 59.0 61.9 64.1 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 27.7 25.3 22.9 20.4 18.0 14.2 10.9 7.8 4.8 1.9 -0.9 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 25 27 28 29 26 22 18 14 13 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -19. -31. -41. -52. -61. -68. -72. -73. -75.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -19. -19. -20. -19. -19. -20. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 14. 14.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 7. 19. 19. 6. -5. -24. -37. -37. -37.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -8. -11. -18. -31. -50. -67. -91.-108.-112.-112.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 34.2 27.7
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.29 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -6.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 536.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.41 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 98 92 89 82 69 47 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 100 99 96 90 87 80 67 45 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 100 97 96 90 87 80 67 45 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 80 67 45 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 74 61 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 78 65 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 100 101 98 89 83 79 66 44 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS