* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 95 88 82 72 54 35 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 100 99 95 88 82 72 54 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 100 100 95 89 81 62 43 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 17 26 26 36 42 44 36 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 7 7 3 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 218 220 217 198 190 168 196 203 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.7 24.1 23.0 21.6 19.8 15.2 13.4 13.2 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 97 92 85 74 70 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 90 86 80 71 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -55.5 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -53.1 -53.7 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 43 47 48 48 49 49 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 36 40 47 40 29 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 106 113 120 96 61 13 53 13 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 58 59 36 24 24 92 82 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -48 -48 -50 -84 -115 -134 30 -1 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1409 1203 953 743 512 301 2 51 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 35.3 36.7 38.0 40.7 43.4 49.3 53.3 57.1 60.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 25.1 22.6 20.1 17.8 15.4 12.1 9.3 6.8 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 27 32 32 27 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 23 CX,CY: 20/ 11
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -21. -33. -44. -54. -63. -69. -71. -72. -74.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -20. -22. -22. -23. -23. -22. -23. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 9. 18. 12. -1. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -12. -18. -28. -46. -65. -80. -86. -91. -95. -95.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 35.3 25.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.03 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 478.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 5.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 95 88 82 72 54 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 100 99 95 88 82 72 54 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 100 97 96 89 83 73 55 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 84 74 56 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW 100 91 85 82 81 71 53 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 73 55 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS
IN 12HR 100 99 95 86 80 76 58 38 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS