* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* OPHELIA AL172017 10/15/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 69 66 60 44 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 80 73 69 66 54 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 80 74 69 62 54 36 30 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 23 34 44 42 38 32 40 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 10 6 5 1 0 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 210 192 182 172 174 199 227 244 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 21.6 20.0 18.0 15.8 14.0 13.5 12.3 11.6 11.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 91 86 80 76 73 71 67 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 85 81 76 73 70 68 65 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -52.9 -54.0 -55.4 -57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 51 51 50 50 51 45 44 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 33 38 45 48 45 35 23 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 105 69 47 21 15 16 -19 -67 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 37 8 64 87 89 42 0 12 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -51 -91 -105 -125 -105 -6 -32 -16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 673 455 409 327 -6 46 175 237 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 40.1 42.9 45.8 48.7 51.6 55.8 59.0 60.5 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 16.9 14.7 12.5 11.1 9.6 6.1 0.8 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 29 33 32 31 27 22 15 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 27 CX,CY: 21/ 17
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -20. -29. -36. -43. -49. -52. -54. -55. -56.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -17. -25. -29. -32. -37. -39.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 17. 19. 18. 18.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 5. 9. 9. 2. -13. -32. -43. -44. -45. -45. -45.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -14. -20. -36. -58. -86.-103.-108.-113.-118.-122.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 40.1 16.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.63 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.71 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 95.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/15/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 73 69 66 54 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 80 79 75 72 60 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 61 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 58 41 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT