* ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  EIGHTEEN    AL182017  10/28/17  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    31    33    36    39    42    45    46    46    45    44    43    41
V (KT) LAND       30    31    33    31    37    41    43    45    44    44    42    41    39
V (KT) LGEM       30    31    32    30    34    34    31   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         1     5    11    16    23    34    54   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     0     2     7    10     4     0   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        229   236   235   224   213   228   224   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         30.1  30.1  29.9  29.2  28.8  27.4  25.7   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   172   173   170   159   153   135   118   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
ADJ. POT. INT.   164   170   169   158   153   134   113   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.0  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A 
TH_E DEV (C)       3     4     5     6     6     4     1   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     66    66    64    60    56    43    33   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    13    15    17    17    14  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    25    28    40    51    63   123   159   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        85    86    99   100   114   104    67   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV       4     2     4     6     7     4   -75   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        315   183    88   -18   102   456   480   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     18.9  20.2  21.5  23.0  24.5  28.3  33.4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     84.5  83.8  83.0  81.5  79.9  75.7  71.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    11    15    18    21    24    29    31   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      59    70    45    16    35    17     1     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  0/  7      CX,CY:   0/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  724  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  62.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.3

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -0.  -1.  -0.   1.   6.  12.  18.  22.  26.  29.  32.  34.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   4.   5.   1.  -3.  -7. -11. -15. -18. -21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   3.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   0.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   9.  12.  15.  16.  16.  15.  14.  13.  11.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   18.9    84.5

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN   10/28/17  06 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           4.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    11.4      30.1  to    2.9       0.69           2.2
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    45.0       0.0  to  156.2       0.29           0.9
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.3       2.4  to   -3.0       0.40           1.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    18.9      36.6  to    2.8       0.52           1.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.21           0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   132.7      28.4  to  139.6       0.94           2.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    96.8     -29.7  to  181.5       0.60           0.6
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   113.6     961.4  to  -67.1       0.82           0.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     9.5     100.0  to    0.0       0.90           0.1
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   1.8 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  14% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   6% is   2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  11% is   2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     6.6%   21.0%   13.9%    7.7%    6.1%   11.3%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     2.9%    8.0%    3.1%    0.7%    0.1%    0.7%    0.1%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.3%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     3.3%    9.7%    5.7%    2.8%    2.1%    4.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN   10/28/17  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN   10/28/2017  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  30    31    33    31    37    41    43    45    44    44    42    41    39
 18HR AGO           30    29    31    29    35    39    41    43    42    42    40    39    37
 12HR AGO           30    27    26    24    30    34    36    38    37    37    35    34    32
  6HR AGO           30    24    21    20    26    30    32    34    33    33    31    30    28
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT