* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL182017 10/29/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 42 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 31 36 39 40 40 31 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 35 32 34 33 31 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 31 41 52 54 54 47 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 5 4 4 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 223 218 215 212 216 217 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.0 26.3 20.7 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 157 149 143 132 124 88 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 159 153 145 132 119 83 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.0 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 53 48 46 45 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 79 109 152 189 219 244 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 133 146 159 173 146 111 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -10 -17 -47 -16 -69 -129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 91 -45 193 306 244 278 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 23.9 26.5 29.0 31.8 34.5 39.4 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 82.5 80.6 78.7 76.1 73.5 69.1 64.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 25 31 33 35 33 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 38 29 13 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 21 CX,CY: 0/ 21
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -18. -28. -37. -46. -52. -58.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 0. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. -1. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -42.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.9 82.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 151.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.86 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 66.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 31 36 39 40 40 31 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 35 34 39 42 43 43 34 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 35 26 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT