* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PHILIPPE AL182017 10/29/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 39 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 38 37 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 40 34 36 34 31 24 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 43 47 57 63 64 43 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 7 4 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 219 222 215 213 211 193 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.7 28.2 27.6 26.5 24.2 13.6 6.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 139 127 107 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 146 153 143 128 104 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -50.4 -47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 55 48 43 46 43 48 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 88 133 157 233 253 250 389 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 90 122 123 155 111 126 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 5 -17 -113 -79 -99 -128 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 106 36 332 200 276 74 -188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 24.6 27.4 30.1 33.4 36.6 43.2 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 82.0 79.8 77.7 75.2 72.7 69.2 67.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 20 33 36 39 37 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 14 15 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 883 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -21. -31. -40. -48. -55. -60.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -8. -18. -27. -36. -43. -51. -57. -64.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.6 82.0
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.60 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.71 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 81.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 38 38 37 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 38 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT