* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RINA AL192017 11/07/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 52 57 63 66 56 54 52 48 43
V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 52 57 63 66 56 54 52 48 43
V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 48 49 49 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 23 23 19 21 21 19 18 26 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 0 2 3 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 289 279 275 272 275 270 272 258 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.3 22.8 21.3 16.9 15.9 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 106 102 100 96 93 87 76 76 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 89 86 84 78 72 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 -57.4 -60.2 -61.7 -61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 53 57 60 63 67 60 62 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 19 21 21 22 21 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 2 17 33 25 41 27 17 -7 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -2 16 33 42 18 21 78 68 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 14 19 26 23 27 35 67 95 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1777 1638 1500 1323 1151 841 737 991 1491 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.2 33.5 35.2 36.9 40.4 43.7 48.1 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 49.9 49.6 49.4 49.0 48.6 47.3 44.7 39.5 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 15 17 18 18 24 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 24.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 28. 31. 21. 19. 17. 13. 8.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.9 49.9
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.32 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.83 2.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.23 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 155.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 78.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.9% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/07/2017 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 47 52 57 63 66 56 54 52 48 43
18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 48 53 59 62 52 50 48 44 39
12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 41 46 52 55 45 43 41 37 32
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 35 41 44 34 32 30 26 21
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT