* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RINA AL192017 11/07/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 50 55 61 57 47 43 40 34 29
V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 50 55 61 57 47 43 40 34 29
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 48 50 50 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 21 20 18 32 48 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -1 0 3 8 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 279 274 283 284 271 282 249 245 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.2 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.2 17.1 14.7 10.4 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 101 97 94 92 90 77 76 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 84 82 81 73 73 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.0 -54.9 -55.6 -57.0 -60.5 -61.6 -61.4 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 64 67 63 61 67 67 61 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 19 20 21 18 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 37 33 15 31 -20 -50 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 31 34 17 -1 -4 58 86 32 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 31 32 26 25 40 66 78 45 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1560 1389 1220 1066 916 694 880 1406 741 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.6 36.2 37.7 39.2 42.9 48.1 53.3 58.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 49.1 48.9 48.8 48.6 48.4 46.1 41.0 31.3 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 15 18 26 36 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. -2. -11. -18. -24. -31. -36.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 28.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 17. 7. 3. 0. -6. -11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.0 49.1
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.34 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.15 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 10.9% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/07/2017 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 48 50 55 61 57 47 43 40 34 29
18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 52 58 54 44 40 37 31 26
12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 46 52 48 38 34 31 25 20
6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 43 39 29 25 22 16 DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT