* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* RINA AL192017 11/08/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 60 64 65 65 63 62 58 53
V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 60 64 65 65 63 62 58 53
V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 50 51 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 22 20 21 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 0 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 280 289 283 279 279 255 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.5 22.9 22.5 22.0 20.2 14.3 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 97 94 91 89 83 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 87 84 82 79 76 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -55.7 -57.5 -59.2 -61.4 -61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 64 68 64 60 60 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 21 20 20 20 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 29 36 35 18 32 31 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 27 23 14 22 13 88 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 30 27 22 39 32 72 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1397 1228 1063 914 776 734 1126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 34.6 36.3 37.9 39.5 41.1 45.3 50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 48.6 48.3 48.0 47.6 47.3 43.8 37.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 20 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. 27.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 19. 20. 20. 18. 17. 13. 8.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.6 48.6
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.33 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.73 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.0% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/08/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 50 52 54 60 64 65 65 63 62 58 53
18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 57 61 62 62 60 59 55 50
12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 51 55 56 56 54 53 49 44
6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 43 47 48 48 46 45 41 36
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT