ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 05 2018 The satellite presentation of Hurricane Hector remains impressive this evening, with a well defined eye surrounded by a large ring of -70 to -80 degree Celsius cloud tops. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB came in at 6.0 (115 knots), while the Advanced Dvorak technique yielded 6.6 (130 knots). Given that Hector's satellite presentation has changed little since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is held at 120 knots which is more or less a blend of the available intensity estimates. Hector has continued to track westward and has picked up a little speed since the previous advisory. The initial motion of Hector is set at 280/13 kt. The latest model guidance remains tightly clustered and brings Hector just north of due west over the next 36 to 48 hours due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge just to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands. Beyond 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is forecast to build to the north of the Hawaiian Island chain, and this should result in the track of Hector moving due westward from 48 to 120 hours. The new official forecast track is very close to the model consensus and nearly identical to the previous official forecast. Hector will remain in favorable low shear environment through the forecast period, but there are some factors that should lead to gradual weakening beyond 24 hours. The hurricane will be traveling over marginal sea surface temperatures around 27C for the next few days, before the SSTs increase to around 28C to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. Additionally and likely more importantly, very dry mid-level air will begin to surround the storm Monday night, and this is expected to lead to gradual weakening of the system from Monday night through Wednesday. The intensity of the system is then expected to level off Wednesday night through Friday as it encounters the higher SSTs. The intensity forecast is very close to the previous forecast with some additional weight given to the dynamical models which have been performing better with this system than the statistical guidance. While the official forecast track continues to lie to the south of the Hawaiian islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts to the state of Hawaii. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office here in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.9N 140.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 15.8N 145.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.3N 148.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 16.7N 151.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 16.8N 158.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 17.0N 164.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 17.6N 169.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema NNNN