ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 34 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 08 2018 Hector's satellite presentation has fluctuated since the previous advisory, with the eye briefly becoming indiscernible in traditional infrared imagery before appearing again. The U.S. Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been penetrating Hector's core this morning, and found some decrease in observed winds (with maximum flight level winds of 106 kt), while the surface pressure changed little since last night. Based on a combination of the aircraft data and subjective and objective satellite-based intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set at 100 kt, with Hector maintaining major hurricane status. The initial motion for this advisory is 270/14 kt, with Hector tracking due west to the south of a mid-level ridge centered to the distant north. The ridge will move little through Thursday, and the high-confidence short-term track forecast keeps Hector moving steadily west well to the south of the main Hawaiian islands. Given the reduced wind threat to the Big Island, the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County. Hector is expected to gradually gain latitude after 48 hours as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge, with a more decided turn toward the northwest expected after 72 hours. The official track forecast lies close to the previous forecast and a tightly-packed guidance envelope through day 3. On days 4 and 5, the official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous, close to FSSE and TVCN, which are indicating a sharper poleward turn as a low aloft develops to the northwest of Hector. Radar and microwave data indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle may be underway, with a secondary eyewall noted in a 1707 UTC SSMI image. If this occurs, some weakening and changes to the wind field may occur in the short-term as the inner eye wall collapses. However, the overall environment in which Hector is embedded will remain conducive for the maintenance of a strong hurricane as shear will be light and SSTs sufficiently warm through Friday. Therefore, the intensity forecast indicates little change through 36 hours, with some weakening in the longer range as southwesterly shear potentially increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.5N 155.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.6N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.7N 160.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 17.5N 165.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.5N 171.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 22.6N 176.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 25.0N 180.0E 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN