ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 44 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP102018 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 10 2018 Hector's satellite appearance has degraded over the past six hours, with the eye now cloud-filled as debilitating southwesterly shear is limiting outflow in the southwest quadrant. On the other hand, impressive outflow continues to the north and northeast of the center, and a 0528Z SSMI pass detected a well-developed eye. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from HFO/SAB/PGTW remain 6.0/115 kt, while Data-T numbers are down to 5.0/90 kt. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 105 kt. Hector's forward motion has slowed since the previous advisory, and the initial motion for this advisory is estimated to be 290/10 kt. Hector lies between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and an upper- level low to the northwest. These two features should put Hector on a trajectory toward the northwest through the weekend. Early next week, the low aloft is forecast to weaken while the mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hector, and a trajectory toward the west-northwest is expected to resume. The updated forecast track follows recent trends, shifting the forecast to the left of the previous, and close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of days as south to southwesterly shear increases, with a slower rate of weakening expected thereafter as shear relaxes. SSTs along the forecast track will steadily decrease, but are still expected to be near 26C on day 3, and near 25C on day 5. The updated intensity forecast anticipates a faster rate of weakening in the short-term than previously indicated, closely following the trend indicated by the IVCN consensus. As shear relaxes in the later forecast periods, SSTs are expected to be sufficiently warm to support a tropical storm, although guidance spread is quite large at that time, with SHIPS maintaining a hurricane, while HWRF/HMON indicate that Hector will be a minimal tropical storm. Given the close approach to the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands on Sunday and Monday, a Tropical Storm Watch remains posted for the area from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Interests on Midway and Kure Atolls should monitor continue to monitor the progress of Hector. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 18.7N 169.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 19.7N 170.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.5N 172.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 23.2N 175.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 24.9N 177.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 27.4N 176.4E 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 29.0N 171.0E 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 32.0N 166.0E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN