ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 20 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 19 2018 After lacking a distinct eye through the night, Lane regained this feature near sunrise. However, after a few hours the eye began to cloud over once again. Nevertheless, this system remains well-organized this morning, with a concentric convective ring and good outflow to the north through northeast. Outflow elsewhere is a bit restricted, a result of the 17 kt of vertical shear noted by UW-CIMSS. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt (PHFO), to 5.0/90 kt (SAB). PTWC estimated 6.0/115 kt, while ADT from UW-CIMSS was 109 kt. This is quite a wide range, possibly the result of the overnight loss and sudden reappearance of a distinct eye right around analysis time. Initial intensity is set at 110 kt for this advisory, representing a slight adjustment upward using a blend of estimates. Initial motion is 280/12 kt as Lane continues tracking just a shade north of due west along the southern flank of a large subtropical ridge. A frontal boundary far northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move southeast as it weakens, eroding the western portion of the ridge from day 3 and beyond. The spread in track guidance continues to be rather wide beyond 48 hours as each model handles this ridge erosion differently. However, consensus guidance continues to be most helpful. The forecast track was nudged slightly northward through 36 hours, due to initial motion, but remains quite close to the previous track from 48 through 96 hours, following TVCX consensus. Forecast points from 120 hours and beyond lie between CMCI and ECMWF solutions. GFS remains near the right edge of the guidance envelope, affecting all associated ensembles. A NOAA G-IV aircraft plans to do a synoptic sampling in the environment around the Hawaiian Islands and Lane later today. The valuable data collected during this mission will be available to better initialize the forecast models. The intensity forecast follows the logic of the previous one, only with a slightly higher initial intensity. Lane will remain over 27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period, with 10 to 20 kt of vertical shear through most of its track, at least according to the ECMWF-derived SHIPS run. Gradual weakening is forecast through the forecast period, closely following FSSE and SHIPS. The weakening curve lies just above IVCN consensus. Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the track starting around day 3. If this verifies, Lane may remain stronger than anticipated beyond day 3. Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity forecast errors can be large. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 13.5N 144.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 13.8N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 14.1N 148.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 14.3N 150.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 14.6N 152.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 15.2N 155.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 16.5N 158.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 18.2N 161.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell NNNN