ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 22 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018 Aircraft from the NOAA Aircraft Operation Center and the U.S. Air Force Reserves 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron have been sampling Hurricane Lane this evening. The data provided by these missions have been invaluable. Based on satellite intensity estimates ranging from 87 to 102 knots and Lane's poor representation in satellite imagery, we might have considered weakening the hurricane. Instead, the aircraft found peak flight-level and SFMR winds of 113 knots in the northwest quadrant. In addition, a dropsonde estimated surface wind of 117 knots was also found in the northwest eyewall. Based on these aircraft observations, we have increased the initial intensity to 110 knots. The initial motion for this advisory is 275/12 knots. Lane continues tracking westward along the southern flank of a large subtropical ridge. There is still quite a bit of spread in track guidance beyond day 2 as individual models handle the erosion of the western portion of this ridge differently, due to the forecast of an upper-level trough digging down northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands later this week. The latest forecast track through 48 hours is close to the previous forecast. However, due to overwhelming evidence that the western end of the ridge will erode from days 3 through 5, we had to shift the track far to the right. The latest forecast track remains to the right of the ECMWF, which is far left of the GFS, HWRF, and consensus models. The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly compared with the previous one. This is based on the stronger initial intensity based on the aircraft, as well as the latest guidance. Lane will remain over 27-28 degree C waters through the forecast period. Shear of 10 to 15 knots is expected during the next 12 hours, followed by reduced shear during the 24 to 48 hour time periods. After that, increasing vertical shear is expected to cause steady weakening, with Lane possibly becoming a tropical storm by Day 5. This intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN consensus guidance. Due to the large uncertainty in the future track and intensity of Lane, all interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the future progress of this system. Based on the latest trends in the forecast, direct impacts on the islands can not be ruled out. The latest trends in tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities also suggest that a Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for some parts of the island chain early this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 13.8N 147.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 13.9N 148.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 14.1N 150.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 14.7N 153.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 15.9N 156.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.5N 158.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 20.0N 160.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Houston NNNN