ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 48 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018 After a burst of deep convection that started late last night and continued through this morning, the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane became exposed this afternoon. The thunderstorms were quickly sheared away from the center as Lane is embedded in an area characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. Subjective Dvorak Data-T numbers were unavailable due to the lack of convection near the center, but current intensities ranged from 2.0/30 kt to 2.5/35 kt. Given that we've seen these recently-exposed LLCCs produce tropical-storm-force winds in the past, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion for this advisory is 260/7 kt. Lane is being driven westward by the low-level trade wind flow supplied by a surface high to the distant northeast. Track guidance is in good agreement in the short term, with Lane tracking generally toward the west through 36 hours. Thereafter, guidance spread increases somewhat but not dramatically, and generally shows a brief slowing in forward speed before an accelerated motion toward the northwest evolves. This occurs as Lane interacts with a developing mid-level low to its west. The updated track forecast is very close to the previous, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. With deep convection absent near Lane's center for several hours, the clock is ticking on Lane's status as a tropical cyclone. While the updated forecast anticipates that brief deep convective pulses will occasionally occur in association with Lane, these are not expected to develop over the center, and Lane is now expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. Thereafter, Lane is expected to track toward the west as a weak post-tropical remnant low. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature, it is then expected to interact with a developing low aloft and transition to an extratropical low by Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around the middle of the week. Around 8 pm HST, Lane passed very close to NOAA buoy 51003, which reported a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and seas just below 12 feet. These data were used to fine tune the analysis. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.3N 161.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.4N 162.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 165.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/0600Z 20.0N 166.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 29/0600Z 23.6N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/0600Z 28.5N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0600Z 33.0N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN