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Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018
 
Lane's low-level circulation center had been exposed for the better 
part of the last 30 hours, as the cyclone remains in an environment 
characterized by 40 kt of vertical wind shear. However, a recent 
vigorous convective burst in the eastern semicircle has at least 
partially obscured the low-level center, and convective banding has 
increased to the southeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
trended up, but were still primarily 2.0/30 kt at the synoptic time,
while UW-CIMSS SATCON was near 35 kt. With the improved satellite
appearance since then, and since an ASCAT pass detected winds just
over 30 kt on Sunday, the initial intensity for this advisory is
increased to 35 kt, and Lane is once again a tropical storm. 

The initial motion for this advisory is 270/7 kt, with Lane being 
driven westward by a surface high to the distant northeast. This 
motion will continue in the short-term, with Lane's forward motion 
expected to diminish tonight as it reaches the southwestern edge of 
the high. At the same time, increased interaction with an
amplifying mid-level low will likely lead to a deepening shear
profile, with the strong shear currently in the upper-levels
spreading to the mid-levels. This should be more effective in
interrupting Lane's low-level core, and Lane is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday. 

Lane is forecast to become an extratropical low later Tuesday into 
Wednesday as it gets wrapped up into the circulation associated
with the mid-level low. This extratropical low could then bring
gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
National Monument as it tracks north and northwest. The updated
track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous,
especially in the later periods, to be better in line with GFEX. The
intensity forecast represents a blend of regional and global model
guidance. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 18.9N 165.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z 34.6N 180.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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