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Tropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018
200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018

All of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving
a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity.
The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent
ASCAT passes over the circulation.  Strong southwesterly shear and
the surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the
production of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of
thunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the
circulation will be able to produce persistent organized
convection.  Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low
has been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it
is entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as
early as tonight.  Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to
gradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force
overnight or early Tuesday.  The remnant low should then dissipate
by day 4.

The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(300 degrees) at 4 kt.  A low-level ridge extending from northern
Mexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow
circulation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster
speed during the next few days.  The new NHC track forecast has
been adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it
otherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close
to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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