* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012018 05/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 26 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 33 35 40 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 251 255 260 272 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 129 127 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 59 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -7 -11 -12 -14 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 50 42 42 39 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2080 2094 2110 2122 2129 2117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.7 128.2 128.6 129.0 129.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -23. -31. -38. -42. -45. -45. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -24. -33. -41. -46. -51. -54. -56. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 127.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012018 ONE 05/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012018 ONE 05/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##