* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012018 05/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 42 43 39 38 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 6 8 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 282 286 280 275 252 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 127 126 122 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 56 54 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -16 -13 -20 -28 -30 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 34 0 -46 -46 -35 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2246 2247 2244 2230 2217 2191 2144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.4 129.7 129.9 130.0 130.1 130.3 130.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -15. -21. -28. -34. -38. -41. -41. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -18. -31. -42. -51. -57. -61. -64. -65. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.7 129.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012018 ONE 05/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 196.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012018 ONE 05/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##