* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012018 05/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 41 37 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 283 277 269 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 128 125 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 56 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -15 -19 -24 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 -3 -37 -32 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2285 2281 2278 2257 2236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.3 130.6 130.8 131.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -22. -31. -38. -44. -47. -47. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -19. -31. -42. -52. -56. -60. -63. -64. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 130.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012018 ONE 05/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012018 ONE 05/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##