* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 53 61 68 77 80 77 76 69 59 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 53 61 68 77 80 77 76 69 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 46 48 51 54 59 62 63 62 58 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 5 4 9 7 6 8 11 16 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 4 2 -6 4 9 4 -2 2 7 8 SHEAR DIR 267 270 266 277 288 302 327 103 148 119 134 159 135 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 155 154 147 143 139 137 132 128 123 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 69 68 69 63 62 62 61 58 61 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 20 20 22 24 26 30 31 31 35 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR 2 5 6 8 10 30 38 60 81 98 115 121 117 200 MB DIV 116 120 121 121 111 49 56 65 14 41 39 -19 -25 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 -10 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 557 581 609 631 656 707 784 854 866 835 795 788 829 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.7 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.8 107.3 107.9 108.5 109.5 110.5 111.6 112.6 113.4 113.8 114.5 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 32 26 23 22 25 26 16 6 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 21. 20. 24. 21. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 33. 42. 45. 42. 41. 34. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.1 106.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.80 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 2.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 33.7% 26.6% 22.2% 0.0% 27.1% 29.0% 17.7% Logistic: 10.1% 29.4% 27.2% 25.7% 15.1% 21.0% 20.1% 6.4% Bayesian: 9.0% 17.8% 5.6% 1.4% 0.2% 3.8% 2.4% 2.5% Consensus: 12.4% 26.9% 19.8% 16.4% 5.1% 17.3% 17.2% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##