* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 54 59 66 71 72 72 64 55 43 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 54 59 66 71 72 72 64 55 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 50 50 49 50 49 49 45 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 5 4 7 3 10 7 12 17 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 6 5 3 4 15 6 3 4 7 11 2 SHEAR DIR 250 257 264 271 273 253 92 107 151 146 176 163 156 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 25.9 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 152 150 148 141 136 133 133 129 120 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 68 68 71 66 65 65 64 60 58 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 23 26 28 30 31 34 33 31 25 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 5 8 15 24 43 63 91 103 122 119 97 200 MB DIV 110 119 120 94 48 47 17 42 16 62 -5 -4 -38 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -10 -6 -5 -8 -1 0 0 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 549 576 601 622 646 693 774 811 808 805 817 851 897 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.4 17.6 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 108.2 108.6 109.0 110.0 111.2 112.2 113.0 114.0 115.2 115.9 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 19 17 17 16 23 18 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 17. 14. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 26. 31. 32. 32. 24. 15. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 106.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.69 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 29.8% 23.5% 20.4% 17.0% 24.8% 21.4% 11.6% Logistic: 5.7% 15.1% 12.3% 10.7% 4.9% 7.3% 7.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 8.4% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% Consensus: 10.6% 16.4% 12.0% 10.4% 7.3% 10.7% 10.1% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##