* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 67 70 80 82 79 71 62 49 39 30 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 67 70 80 82 79 71 62 49 39 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 66 67 68 68 66 62 53 43 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 7 10 3 7 11 19 7 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 0 0 5 3 1 7 13 4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 287 294 285 278 317 119 141 152 173 183 148 166 155 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 145 142 141 139 136 133 126 120 114 107 103 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 72 67 69 70 68 59 56 49 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 25 26 31 31 31 30 28 23 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 13 20 23 46 63 87 100 108 86 69 51 200 MB DIV 93 43 22 33 24 96 66 71 32 13 -10 15 17 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -5 -4 -8 -4 0 3 0 2 -2 2 0 LAND (KM) 682 711 744 777 811 882 873 839 813 810 843 878 912 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.0 110.5 111.0 112.0 112.8 113.5 114.3 115.1 116.0 116.8 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 22 24 22 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. 2. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 25. 27. 24. 16. 7. -6. -16. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.5 108.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 5.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 2.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.8% 43.7% 30.3% 22.0% 19.6% 32.0% 21.0% 7.4% Logistic: 15.9% 15.5% 9.8% 8.8% 5.2% 6.6% 2.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 10.4% 22.4% 7.3% 3.1% 2.0% 3.4% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.0% 27.2% 15.8% 11.3% 8.9% 14.0% 8.3% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##