* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 64 70 67 65 58 48 39 30 24 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 64 70 67 65 58 48 39 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 58 58 57 57 56 51 43 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 4 3 11 12 11 9 5 7 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 4 4 -1 -2 8 8 16 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 278 254 253 242 90 124 150 159 185 169 170 149 144 SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.9 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 140 138 134 133 130 122 115 109 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 66 66 66 64 60 54 50 45 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 28 28 29 31 30 30 28 25 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 25 35 48 60 73 81 93 102 71 62 43 200 MB DIV 45 39 35 27 71 83 28 52 -6 -19 -8 16 14 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -8 -5 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 677 717 761 781 800 824 806 775 733 759 846 885 912 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.6 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.8 110.4 110.8 111.2 111.9 112.7 113.4 114.2 115.2 116.4 117.1 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 21 23 19 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 12. 10. 3. -7. -16. -25. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.8 109.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 4.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 206.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 33.7% 24.7% 20.7% 18.5% 24.4% 17.5% 6.7% Logistic: 10.2% 16.5% 10.1% 8.2% 4.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 9.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.8% 19.8% 12.5% 10.0% 7.7% 9.7% 6.1% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##