* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 100 99 97 85 70 55 40 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 98 100 99 97 85 70 55 40 27 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 97 98 93 87 73 60 48 36 27 21 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 10 9 13 17 20 13 9 11 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 6 3 5 2 9 7 6 2 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 237 217 152 167 151 193 185 219 217 224 164 180 187 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.6 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 132 130 128 124 115 107 99 93 87 83 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 63 68 69 64 58 55 50 43 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 28 29 28 26 25 22 18 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 27 42 48 52 51 68 64 97 85 54 27 37 30 200 MB DIV 88 89 91 80 90 24 39 23 12 -19 -16 3 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -6 -4 -2 0 2 5 2 2 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 694 718 746 756 741 723 683 662 676 712 797 853 876 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.1 111.6 112.0 112.7 113.5 114.3 115.1 116.2 117.4 118.3 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 16 16 10 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 13. 12. 9. 5. 2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -8. -13. -15. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 9. 7. -5. -20. -35. -50. -63. -74. -84. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.5 110.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 9.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 383.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 6.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.5% 33.1% 28.1% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 48.3% 16.8% 14.0% 5.6% 1.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 38.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 45.7% 17.3% 14.2% 9.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##