* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 115 113 107 88 68 50 35 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 113 115 113 107 88 68 50 35 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 112 109 102 94 75 60 46 34 26 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 14 24 18 10 7 14 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 5 5 4 7 6 2 5 4 4 8 SHEAR DIR 219 148 163 149 178 173 205 220 224 218 179 194 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.0 24.3 23.4 22.4 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 131 130 125 119 111 104 94 84 77 76 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 68 66 68 59 56 51 46 40 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 28 29 29 27 26 24 21 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 51 51 51 73 81 101 69 33 34 20 19 200 MB DIV 92 92 80 90 63 24 29 8 -4 -14 -20 14 -12 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -4 -2 -1 1 3 7 0 4 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 722 743 766 742 719 706 691 690 719 738 799 850 911 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.8 116.9 118.1 119.0 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 16 12 5 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -24. -33. -40. -46. -50. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -1. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 10. 8. 2. -17. -37. -55. -70. -83. -95.-106.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.6 110.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 447.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.4% 11.1% 9.2% 4.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.9% 3.7% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##