* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 119 113 102 91 64 45 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 119 113 102 91 64 45 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 115 105 94 83 63 48 35 26 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 15 20 26 17 13 11 10 13 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 11 4 4 6 8 6 8 7 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 198 174 191 195 186 206 222 219 208 208 196 208 167 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.6 22.2 22.1 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 132 129 126 117 110 101 93 85 81 78 80 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 71 67 60 56 53 49 48 46 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 26 27 24 26 23 22 18 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 54 74 81 77 103 57 30 63 74 82 91 200 MB DIV 117 108 53 27 23 12 3 -7 -5 -5 12 0 13 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -5 -2 5 3 10 1 7 1 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 787 778 768 741 721 703 729 761 782 815 877 918 942 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.4 115.4 116.4 117.3 118.1 119.0 119.5 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 7 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -48. -58. -65. -69. -73. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -13. -8. -3. 0. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -3. -7. -9. -14. -18. -19. -21. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -7. -18. -29. -56. -75. -91.-103.-112.-122.-129.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 484.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##