* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 93 85 74 55 43 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 103 93 85 74 55 43 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 110 100 90 79 69 53 40 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 17 20 19 21 16 10 9 6 15 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 5 5 9 5 4 4 8 4 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 179 181 185 197 188 222 222 222 210 187 173 179 157 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.7 23.8 24.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 128 124 117 112 106 100 97 98 101 104 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 70 67 59 56 52 48 46 45 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 23 25 22 21 21 17 15 12 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 52 60 72 76 67 96 76 31 49 53 60 67 104 200 MB DIV 116 62 41 31 24 -15 2 -14 10 17 22 11 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -2 5 3 5 4 3 5 0 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 794 780 771 753 740 746 798 864 923 999 1082 1151 1212 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.6 113.1 113.6 114.0 114.9 115.8 116.9 118.0 119.1 120.1 120.7 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 7 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -31. -40. -48. -53. -57. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -13. -8. -4. 0. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -17. -25. -36. -55. -67. -80. -89. -97.-104.-110.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.0 112.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 395.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##