* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 89 79 69 57 42 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 89 79 69 57 42 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 100 89 78 68 59 44 33 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 20 21 24 18 11 11 13 12 11 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 4 9 9 8 8 6 4 4 5 4 8 SHEAR DIR 183 186 202 198 214 227 234 186 192 195 200 164 156 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 129 126 122 117 111 106 105 107 107 110 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 65 59 54 47 41 36 33 30 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 25 24 22 21 18 15 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 77 84 77 82 90 61 32 34 27 34 49 61 200 MB DIV 66 57 35 30 -4 -9 -9 5 -24 10 1 -1 -4 700-850 TADV -6 1 5 2 3 7 -1 4 2 3 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 799 786 780 779 783 836 921 991 1079 1167 1274 1366 1459 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.2 16.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.7 116.9 118.1 119.3 120.4 121.5 122.2 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 3 1 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -24. -32. -39. -43. -46. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -11. -7. -4. -2. -0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -31. -43. -58. -71. -80. -87. -94. -98.-102.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.1 112.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 389.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##