* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 71 61 53 40 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 80 71 61 53 40 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 80 71 63 55 43 33 26 21 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 18 21 20 15 6 10 8 10 9 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 7 8 6 8 7 6 1 4 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 169 195 197 214 220 219 199 167 168 147 143 136 124 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 128 125 122 118 113 110 110 112 115 116 119 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 62 61 55 47 41 37 32 31 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 23 22 20 17 15 13 11 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 79 80 77 86 98 100 64 55 48 39 31 36 29 200 MB DIV 45 39 32 17 3 7 7 -5 -2 12 14 -4 -26 700-850 TADV -2 2 0 0 1 5 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 793 794 801 817 836 905 1017 1092 1146 1218 1292 1360 1430 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.1 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.5 114.1 114.6 115.1 116.2 117.6 118.7 119.4 120.2 120.9 121.5 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 4 3 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 1 2 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -33. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -6. -3. -1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -29. -37. -50. -60. -67. -72. -77. -80. -82. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.3 112.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 338.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##