* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 58 48 39 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 58 48 39 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 58 49 42 37 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 18 20 20 12 9 10 14 11 15 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 3 7 7 7 8 2 3 0 2 9 SHEAR DIR 190 178 190 204 210 209 177 184 141 159 116 131 121 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 127 125 122 117 113 114 115 117 118 121 127 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 60 56 53 46 40 34 31 30 30 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 20 21 18 15 14 11 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 76 74 72 88 99 86 52 60 45 37 45 64 53 200 MB DIV 33 38 29 19 7 3 4 -8 12 12 -1 -2 -14 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 1 8 1 2 0 2 0 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 844 840 840 868 900 989 1070 1159 1236 1317 1377 1476 1600 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.1 15.9 15.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.1 114.6 115.2 115.8 117.0 118.2 119.2 120.1 120.9 121.5 122.3 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -9. -7. -4. -2. -0. 3. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -20. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -22. -31. -37. -48. -57. -62. -64. -65. -67. -67. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.1 113.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 305.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##