* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 44 37 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 44 37 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 43 34 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 15 14 9 14 10 15 8 15 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 5 10 7 6 4 0 3 1 5 5 SHEAR DIR 174 190 189 210 212 211 172 161 152 149 114 111 119 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 128 126 123 118 117 116 119 121 123 123 123 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 62 59 53 45 40 35 34 32 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 19 15 14 12 10 9 6 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 68 63 77 94 91 66 48 44 46 36 56 62 49 200 MB DIV 31 14 16 24 11 8 33 15 0 4 -21 25 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 5 7 1 2 1 1 1 -1 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 883 890 901 918 938 1058 1143 1208 1269 1349 1434 1486 1523 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.1 15.8 15.3 15.1 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.5 115.0 115.6 116.1 117.5 118.5 119.4 120.2 121.0 121.6 122.1 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 10 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -14. -11. -7. -5. -2. 2. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -9. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -18. -24. -29. -41. -48. -55. -57. -58. -61. -61. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 114.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##