* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 37 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 36 30 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 14 11 9 7 9 15 17 11 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 2 7 7 8 6 0 1 3 3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 190 202 215 215 209 188 168 153 170 156 132 131 146 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 128 126 122 120 120 120 120 122 123 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 64 61 60 57 50 44 35 29 26 30 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 16 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 84 96 95 47 57 55 54 58 70 52 48 200 MB DIV 28 22 13 29 22 7 16 19 1 6 -6 -7 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 5 4 3 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 904 937 974 1013 1054 1143 1210 1273 1342 1387 1397 1414 1447 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.0 115.6 116.2 116.8 117.9 119.0 120.0 120.9 121.3 121.2 121.2 121.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 12 11 8 4 0 0 0 0 3 12 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. 1. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -23. -31. -38. -44. -46. -49. -49. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 114.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 191.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##