* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 35 30 27 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 10 7 10 12 19 13 13 14 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 8 4 3 6 1 0 1 1 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 212 218 216 213 221 180 174 155 174 134 112 137 130 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 122 119 117 117 117 116 115 117 118 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 59 56 48 40 32 30 30 31 26 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 16 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 79 89 86 63 41 58 52 57 67 70 45 34 200 MB DIV 21 9 7 -2 15 14 -5 4 12 -16 -16 -28 -1 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 3 3 2 0 -2 0 -3 -8 -3 0 LAND (KM) 879 915 955 1002 1051 1132 1214 1267 1310 1317 1334 1349 1372 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.5 116.1 116.7 117.3 118.3 119.5 120.3 120.8 120.9 120.9 121.0 121.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. 0. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -41. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 114.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##