* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 32 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 30 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 8 11 13 19 25 13 8 8 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 3 6 4 -2 -1 -1 5 5 5 14 SHEAR DIR 217 220 223 226 212 198 161 167 155 136 94 108 92 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 121 118 115 115 115 117 115 116 117 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 55 49 43 33 28 24 24 21 21 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 77 74 49 38 56 62 64 67 82 61 56 34 200 MB DIV 14 3 -2 9 17 -5 11 15 12 1 -8 7 25 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 5 1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 908 940 975 1020 1066 1143 1218 1267 1288 1310 1327 1342 1356 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.0 116.6 117.2 117.8 118.8 119.7 120.3 120.6 120.8 120.8 120.9 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -18. -26. -33. -39. -44. -44. -45. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 115.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 205.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 10.2% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##