* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 13 15 16 19 12 9 4 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 6 4 0 0 0 3 8 9 9 16 SHEAR DIR 223 225 222 207 196 192 171 177 122 86 75 107 97 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 118 116 114 112 111 113 114 114 113 115 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 60 57 52 48 41 32 29 24 23 22 21 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 75 55 34 34 55 55 58 67 69 62 48 39 200 MB DIV 12 9 10 19 -4 -3 18 13 16 -4 -6 32 0 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 7 2 0 -5 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 916 944 974 1024 1068 1144 1185 1228 1271 1293 1279 1295 1331 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.4 116.8 117.4 118.0 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.6 120.8 120.6 120.7 121.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 3 2 2 2 0 0 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -27. -34. -40. -42. -43. -44. -45. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 4.9% 4.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##