* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 86 88 89 87 85 76 68 60 52 45 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 86 88 89 87 85 76 68 60 52 45 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 84 85 83 77 69 61 54 48 42 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 8 13 10 8 4 2 1 2 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -1 3 2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 48 68 80 80 73 78 345 6 174 27 294 297 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.3 22.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 152 148 142 134 128 123 114 105 94 86 85 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -51.3 -50.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 77 79 75 74 70 67 63 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 25 25 25 25 26 23 21 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 13 13 25 31 60 54 65 53 54 28 29 200 MB DIV 81 82 103 120 132 94 80 73 79 44 23 -14 -14 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -7 -6 -4 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 317 308 309 295 291 291 292 280 297 247 122 23 1 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.8 23.1 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.5 109.2 109.9 110.4 110.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 11 9 8 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 6. -2. -10. -18. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.7 104.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.72 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 2.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.4% 40.2% 25.0% 21.8% 18.6% 20.5% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 21.5% 26.0% 15.2% 13.5% 7.4% 10.6% 3.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 29.8% 40.6% 20.4% 13.9% 4.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 27.2% 35.6% 20.2% 16.4% 10.2% 11.3% 6.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##