* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 33 29 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 16 17 18 17 14 12 14 9 10 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 6 5 3 0 3 0 3 7 8 6 10 SHEAR DIR 212 207 201 193 193 173 162 126 123 107 97 110 104 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 113 112 111 111 113 113 114 116 116 116 114 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 49 45 37 35 31 29 26 26 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 51 36 27 44 51 60 57 64 51 65 29 17 200 MB DIV 19 13 15 -1 -6 14 27 27 20 5 22 16 -3 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 936 974 1011 1050 1092 1170 1209 1231 1245 1260 1284 1276 1267 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.0 16.1 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.0 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.5 119.7 119.9 120.1 120.2 120.3 120.3 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -23. -29. -35. -39. -42. -43. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.0 116.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 199.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.9% 3.0% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##