* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 19 19 17 9 15 13 15 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 4 3 1 0 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 201 196 188 188 172 135 106 96 115 112 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 116 116 115 117 118 118 117 117 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 50 46 44 42 37 35 33 36 34 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 27 26 39 38 49 50 67 58 59 53 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 20 -1 -11 7 20 12 32 7 2 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 1 0 1 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1036 1073 1110 1150 1192 1253 1284 1284 1260 1260 1284 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.2 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.2 16.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.1 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.1 120.3 120.3 120.2 120.2 120.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 117.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.14 -0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 197.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##