* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 13 12 13 11 12 11 10 13 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 4 2 3 7 8 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 193 187 189 172 164 107 103 86 99 115 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 118 117 118 119 119 119 117 119 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 44 43 42 40 38 34 35 35 34 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 36 32 33 47 55 64 51 54 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 8 1 6 8 21 21 27 15 16 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 1 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1086 1128 1171 1202 1233 1271 1282 1288 1280 1273 1269 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.6 119.1 119.5 119.8 120.1 120.0 120.1 120.1 120.0 119.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 118.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 2.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.27 -0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 9.9% 6.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##