* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 71 68 63 59 53 46 42 29 27 25 19 V (KT) LAND 85 77 71 68 63 59 53 46 42 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 76 69 63 59 52 45 35 35 30 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 5 3 3 7 11 16 25 21 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 2 4 305 232 188 216 246 227 224 218 227 229 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.3 23.5 23.6 25.3 26.3 25.0 19.8 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 122 118 113 104 96 98 116 127 114 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.3 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 4 5 3 5 3 6 3 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 67 65 68 65 66 61 53 46 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 24 25 23 23 21 18 15 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 36 38 57 41 42 20 50 37 38 62 50 200 MB DIV 82 62 30 30 28 28 42 33 41 19 34 -23 4 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -4 12 23 -1 LAND (KM) 355 350 352 356 308 191 34 0 51 -11 -198 -359 -681 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 21.2 22.6 24.2 26.0 28.1 30.4 33.3 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.3 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 110.7 110.2 109.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -26. -30. -31. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -22. -26. -32. -39. -43. -56. -58. -60. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.6 108.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 199.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING