* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 35 31 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 33 35 32 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 31 33 28 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 11 14 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 1 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 244 241 235 230 230 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.3 26.7 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 104 105 104 106 132 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 4 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 61 64 60 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 15 15 11 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 17 34 25 19 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 29 17 28 31 58 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -5 0 -5 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 174 102 36 -22 33 22 -194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.6 24.5 27.0 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.6 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.4 109.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 109.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.4% 10.4% 9.3% 5.5% 5.8% 6.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.8% 3.5% 3.1% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##