* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 39 34 37 35 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 39 34 36 33 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 15 23 27 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 231 219 223 224 224 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.8 23.5 24.1 25.3 26.6 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 97 104 117 130 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -50.6 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 64 63 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 13 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 41 27 18 25 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 25 28 23 42 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 28 -11 33 60 -40 -239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.5 25.6 28.1 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.0 110.2 110.3 110.4 110.2 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -4. -12. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 109.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 12.1% 8.8% 8.0% 3.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##