* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 30 31 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 35 38 37 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 35 37 35 32 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 24 24 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 231 234 234 232 225 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.4 24.9 26.3 27.1 25.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 106 112 127 136 123 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 62 60 59 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 10 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 30 20 26 25 48 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 33 25 34 58 56 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 0 -1 -2 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 36 -14 39 65 12 -159 -382 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.7 26.9 29.2 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 109.9 110.0 110.1 110.1 109.7 109.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -19. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -10. -9. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.7 109.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 1.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 -0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.4% 6.7% 6.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.5% 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/15/18 00 UTC ## ##