* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042018 06/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 51 58 62 65 67 69 71 73 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 32 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 33 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 12 11 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 18 14 15 6 358 359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 168 167 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 71 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 8 21 25 29 66 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 46 34 28 35 65 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 61 32 3 -25 -54 -93 -143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.4 99.2 99.0 98.8 98.6 98.4 98.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 53 54 55 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 16. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.0 99.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##