* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 75 78 80 81 81 82 83 84 V (KT) LAND 55 59 48 41 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 50 42 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 9 5 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 36 41 19 355 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 31.0 31.0 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 168 168 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 70 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 52 46 40 51 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 84 79 67 60 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 25 3 -17 -43 -69 -121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.5 99.7 99.9 100.0 100.1 100.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 4 51 51 52 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 99.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##