* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/17/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 37 38 41 46 51 56 58 60 66 71 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 36 34 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 6 6 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 50 52 28 14 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 167 166 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 63 64 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 31 46 58 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 45 36 20 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 24 20 17 0 -22 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.4 101.7 101.8 102.0 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 4 2 46 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. 0. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 11. 16. 18. 20. 26. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 101.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.14 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.6 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 24.8% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 26.0% 11.8% 9.9% 7.1% 20.8% 16.6% 26.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 4.2% 17.2% 9.5% 3.3% 2.4% 7.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/17/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##